SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2005

THE MARINE LAYER IS SITTING AT 800 FEET. ONSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED BUT THE MARINE CLOUDS HAVE NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. MONSOON FLOW MOST LIKELY INTERFERING WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL MARINE CLOUD PATTERN AND SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS NEAR THE BEACHES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS...WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. MDLS VERY SIMILAR WITH ALL SYNOPTIC TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS AND SEE NEXT THREE DAYS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS FOR MAX
TEMPS.

MONSOON IS THE MAIN PROBLEM AND TODAYS REAL FOCUS. MDLS HAVE BACKED DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MORE OF A STABLE SW FLOW INDICATED AND MIXING RATIO FIELDS AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB ARE LESS MOIST THAN SATURDAY. BUT...THETA-E RIDGE IS STILL DRAPED AROUND EASTERN L.A. COUNTY AND REACHES OVER TO VENTURA COUNTY. THESE THEATA-E VALUES ARE LESS THAN SATURDAYS BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE. SBA COUNTY IS TOO FAR TO THE WEST AND HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN THERE. NO REAL SYNOPTIC REASON FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET SO REMOVED NIGHT TIME POPS. CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED NICELY TONIGHT SO MORNING INSOLATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS WILL HELP TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL COVERS ZNS 53 54 AND 59 AND THIS STILL LOOKS OK AS UPPER FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND TSTM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW.

MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BE DOWN AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. MDLS FLIP FLOPPED ON TUESDAY AND NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. THROTTLED BACK ON THE TSTM POPS AS A RESULT.