SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST SUN MAR 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE DISTRICT CONTINUES THIS MORNING... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DRY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL SHOWERS SOUTH OF POINT MUGU. 140 KT JET ALOFT IS EVIDENT ON THE 12Z VBG/NKX SOUNDINGS. HIRES NAM FORECASTS LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS SLO COUNTY... AND WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE FCST FOR THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

400 AM PST SUN MAR 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MOIST...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEST FLOW OVER THE DISTRICT IS CAUSING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC AND SHOULD DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING IS NOW FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY WHICH WILL CREATE A MOSTLY DRY DAY. A NEW IMPULSE WILL SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS NOW BECAUSE 12 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM MDL RUN TO MDL RUN VARIANCES HAVE BEEN THE NORM THESE LAST FEW DAYS. THE TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLING AND DRYING CONDS.