SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST WED JAN 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS STILL BEING DETECTED ON RADAR BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE. AIRMASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND A LIGHT SHOWER COULD PRETTY MUCH DEVELOP ANYWHERE AT ANYTIME SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW GRADE POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG EVENT SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. JUST CHECKED THE 18Z ETA AND IT HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS SO THE HEAVIER RAIN MAY NOT REACH THE LA AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWER SOLUTION BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS PRETTY HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY HEAVY BUT RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. STILL THOUGH WITH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME PLACES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES FROM SBA TO ALTADENA, WE COULD EASILY DEVELOP FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH OUR GROUND SO SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. WILL BE PUTTING OUT FLOOD WATCHES FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OUR AREA SOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WATCHES GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PST WED JAN 5 2005

SHORT TERM...A BIT OF BREAK IN OUR WET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR MAINLY NORTH OF SBA. THE AIRMASS IS JUST SO MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE THAT A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANYTIME. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BE MOST AT RISK, BUT EVEN THE LA BASIN COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. WILL PROBABLY KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT A THREAT TO OUR VERY SATURATED GROUND.