Preflight posting to SCPA discussion

Tuesday look at Wednesday

The Santa Anna event is scheduled for 3 days, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  Don’t know if anyone went today.  I couldn’t get away.  Each day will be a little different and have it’s own flavor.

I’ll try to fly Wednesday because I think the lapse rate may be better on Wednesday than Thursday, but the wind on Thursday may be less.  Diablo has Carolyn lined up for a trip to launch Wednesday.  He has 3 back seats available.  I’ll take one, or two if I can lasso a tandem victim (any takers?), so there are still one or two seats available. Call Diablo

Pipkin has crew for Thursday.

SD

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT WED SEP 22 2004

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS  AND DESERTS ARE STARTING TO CATCH UP BUT ARE STILL RUNNING SEVERAL  DEGREES COOLER THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE. WINDS WERE MUCH WEAKER THAN TUESDAY AND ALL WIND ADVISORIES HAVE NOW BEEN LET GO.

 900 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2004

SHORT TERM...
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT AS EXPECTED, THE  SUPPORT ALOFT HAS DECREASED AND THUS WINDS ARE STRUGGLING. THIS IS  NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE SECOND DAY OF OFFSHORE EVENTS AND IN MANY CASES  THE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST FOR  A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  SO WILL STICK WITH THE ADVISORY DESPITE THE RATHER ANEMIC WINDS SO  FAR THIS MORNING. IF WINDS ARE STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN A COUPLE  HOURS WE'LL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL IT.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHTER TODAY, RH'S ARE EXPECTED TO STAY  EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS  STILL WARRANTED DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF DRY WEATHER.

ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS AT THE COAST NEAR  TUESDAY'S LEVELS AND INLAND TEMPS AT LEAST 3-6 DEGREES WARMER.

230 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2004

SHORT TERM...
LATEST MDL RUNS SHOW MUCH MUCH LESS UPPER SUPPORT THAN THERE WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS PUTS THE WAD IN JEPORDY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER OFFSHORE E/W BUT ARE TRENDING ONSHORE N/S. THIS WILL FOCUS THE FLOW ON THE MORE EASTERY CANYONS TODAY. WAD WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. ENOUGH OFFSHORE PUSH THU TO KEEP THINGS CLEAR WILL PRODUCE 15 TO 25 MPH AT BEST. BL TEMPS RISE MORE TODAY SO VLYS AND INTERIOR SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES NR COAST WILL COOL A LITTLE. THU COASTS WILL COOL BUT VLYS AND INTERIORS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

TROFING AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURN FRIDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING IN MARINE CLOUDS BUT THERE WILL BE COOLING OVER ALL AREAS.

850 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2004

SHORT TERM...
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE  SOLIDLY OFFSHORE AND THE SKY IS CLEAR EVERYWHERE. NORTHEAST WINDS  HAVE HIT THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL LULL BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER  TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER TODAY...BUT  SURFACE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WED MORNING.  SO...WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY KICK IN DURING THE  MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED AFTN...MAINLY THROUGH AND  BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.

 TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH COASTAL AREA HIGHS WED SIMILAR TO  TODAY...WHICH MEANS 70S TO MID 80S NORTH TO 80S AND LOWER 90S SOUTH.  WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESSES AND RISING HEIGHTS...INLAND TEMPS  WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER.