NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MARINE LAYER FILLING IN ACROSS VTU/LAX COUNTIES. ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WITH DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GOOD ONSHORE PUSH...SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL SLOPES. CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON... WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING BY THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY... WILL EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ALL AREAS... ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS/DESERTS... WITH LOWER THICKNESSES AND GOOD ONSHORE FLOW.  BY THIS EVENING... GOOD NORTHERLY GRADIENTS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNDOWNERS ACROSS SBA COUNTY WITH ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY... NORTHERLY GRADIENTS AND COLDER AIR SHOULD MEAN LITTLE... OR NO... MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. SO... WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ALL AREAS DUE TO WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER/WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS/HIGHER THICKNESSES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL YET AGAIN AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN... LIMITING ANY MARINE LAYER FORMATION. WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY EVENING TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SO... WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF WIND THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. AS FOR TEMPS... TUESDAY SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS NORTHEAST WINDS ALLOW COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS TO WARM UP DRAMATICALLY... DUE TO DOWN SLOPE EFFECTS. AS FOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS... TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL... ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS.

Posted to the SCPA bulletin board on Sunday Morning

First cold front of the season driven by a jet stream that dropped down sharply to the south. The rain went to the north, but we have the post frontal cold air mass and NW wind.

Good lapse rate in SB and Ojai

Debbie, along with the passes and canyons, are reporting too much wind at dawn, but my hope is that it will block to give us a window later this morning. If the heating doesn't block the NW wind down lower on the costal slope, we may opt to look at Bates. Ojai may block better, but it’s also more expensive to get to launch and my preclude the beach window option.

Monday will still have some wind, but less and it’s clocking around to (from) the north on it’s way to NE. The air mass starts to warm back up, but is still cool. May be a better day.

Tuesday looks like a Santa Anna event.

SD