Weather Postings to the SCPA discussion page for Labor Day Weekend 9/4,5,6/04
his perception of what might happen based on reading the forecast resources
Friday night look at the Labor Day weekend weather
Looks like some exciting weather this weekend. A low pressure trough with its associated deep marine layer and lower level instability will move east and be replaced by high pressure with some offshore gradients. A little early for Santa Anna, but it’s trying. Friday definitely looked better down low with cool 6K temps, but there was some wind and eddy from the SE early. Debbie was reporting stiff SE early, but she did report SW later in the afternoon on Friday.
Saturday should be a transition day as it warms back up at all altitudes. May still be some east wind on the front range early. Topa is likely the call, but the Skyport may still work. The lapse rate looks better below 10K, so it may be difficult to punch up from Pine, plus Pine may be north side. The low level stuff on the front range may work better early before the air above the ridge line heats up and the ocean draws in.
By Sunday, things heat up with some potential early drainage and compression heating. The marine layer will back out and squash down. Not sure what the lapse rate and winds will be like. If the wind isn’t too bad, we may be able to play for the beach from Pine. Sunday is forecast to be the peak heat day, but Monday looks good also.
I probably only have a kitchen pass for one day. I’ll check the weather Saturday morning, but for now it looks like I may put in for Sunday.
SD
The day looks good for Ojai, and possibly SB. Weak Santa Anna, minimal marine air, but the relative humidity is resulting in some haze, less eddy than Friday, expect it to turn SW at the coast in the afternoon. The wind is lighter than Friday, trending perhaps from the NNE to more of Santa Anna push from the ESE on Sunday. Good lapse rate in Ojai.
I’ll need to wait for my Sunday kitchen pass, but today looks very good. My suburban is available today, but someone from SB will need to check it out, Brendan has the 3rd seat. Edward has signed up to crew on Sunday, but is working with another small crew of visitors today.
Launch will likely be Chief’s today, but Sunday may be Nordhoff, so we may need an earlier start on Sunday. If we end up at Nordhoff Peak, we may want an extra half hour for a little launch cleaning the first trip of the season.
Diablo may be heading to Chiefs later today, and I know there are plenty of pilots looking to fly earlier.
SD
9:30 at Nordhoff High School, Probably for Topa, on Sunday Morning
SD’s Suburban and Diablo’s Truck, with Edward and Jenny for Crew
Saturday night forecast for Sunday:
A little more push from the east than Saturday, but it drew hard upriver Saturday afternoon, and the channel forecast is calling for a little west in the afternoon on Sunday, so expect to run into some lower level onshore flow from the west in the afternoon. The working time is about the same as April, so we may have an opportunity for an out and return. The current out and back mark from Topa in a PG is the east side of East Divide (http://paraglide.net/log/04/04_04-04_topa_points.htm), hopefully we can stretch it a bit. Piru switched upriver about 3 pm on Saturday, so there may be a convergence moving upriver to bridge across the Santa Clara in the afternoon.
The temps are forecasted to be higher than Saturday with a ballistic lapse rate in Ojai. The forecasted temp spread from the valley to 6Kis over 30°F. The lapse rate may be similar to Saturday, or perhaps a bit better. The 6K temp is dramatically higher, but it still looks a little flat around 10K, so punching up from Pine may be iffy. If you can get high at pine, flying back to the beach would be noteworthy, but I’ll probably play for the out and return (still need to look at the weather Sunday Morning)
Chiefs will likely be launchable in the afternoon, but it may be NE earlier, so we have an early go to give us time to clean launch if we go to Nordhoff. Skyport may work again also, but the lapse rate may not be as good as Saturday. Pilots were reporting over 5K in SB on Saturday. 2nd hand reports had pilots in Ojai hitting an inversion about 8K and flying to Cate School in Carpinteria. Brendan reported over 11K at Pine.
SD