SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST MON FEB 3 2003

DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BUT AT THIS POINT ADVISORIES ARE NOT NECESSARY OR EXPECTED LATER. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH STILL A LONG WAY FROM THE RECORD HIGHS OF LATE LAST WEEK. MTNS AND DESERTS WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AS AIRMASS ALOFT WARMS SLIGHTLY. GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND OFFSHORE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS NEXT OFFSHORE EVENT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES SO WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY. HOWEVER, IT IS A VERY COLD AIRMASS SO TEMPS (BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS) WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS DIFFICULT. SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY COLD, POSSIBLY NOT EVEN GETTING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE VALLEYS COULD GET BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS PROBABLY STAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS INSIDE SLIDERS USUALLY ARE, THIS ONE WILL BE DRY SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST. SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND MODELS FOR SAT, SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN THE PAC NW COAST, BUT THIS ONE HAS A TRAJECTORY THAT COULD MOVE IT OVER THE WATER BEFORE IT REACHES US, MEANING IT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP EVENTUALLY, PERHAPS BY NEXT MONDAY. MY CONFIDENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS IS VERY LOW AND AM NOT WILLING TO COMMIT ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE SOLUTIONS START TO SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY.