SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 11 2002

METARS AND RAWS DATA INDICATED THAT EDDY CIRCULATION WAS LINGERING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.  MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DISRUPTED... BUT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE THRU 850 MB...SOME CLOUDS HAVE FORMED... AND WERE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH-WESTWARD ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.  FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE NORTHERLY GRADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CST WERE STILL PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW THE PASSES OF SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY.  HOWEVER... WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE LOCALIZED... SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE.  NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE... AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE SPREAD INTO MOUNTAIN AREAS NOT INFLUENCED BY THE EDDY CIRCULATION.  NORTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN SLOPES.  SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN SBA COUNTY... AND ALTHOUGH THEY MAY TEND TO BUILD NORTH WESTWARD... BELIEVE MOST OF SLO COUNTY WILL REMAIN CLEAR. BELIEVE CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO L.A. COUNTY...AND BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PROBABLY JUST USE PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MOST OF L.A. COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING... BUT WILL MAKE THE FINAL DECISION NEAR ISSUANCE TIME.

UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO CA.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... SHOWING THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD THIS A.M.... WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING THRU THE FORECAST AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.  SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS... AND DRIER NORTH WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KILL THE EDDY CIRCULATION... OR AT LEAST FORCE IT TO THE S OF THE AREA.  THEREFORE... EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS L.A. COUNTY BY AFTERNOON.  AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO UTAH LATER TODAY... RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.  THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE AND MODELS SHOW 3-5 DEGREES C OF WARMING AT 850 MB.  950 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY... LIKELY DUE TO THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION.  NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...  WHERE DECENT NORTHERLY GRADS WERE IN PLACE AND STRONG OFFSHORE TRENDS WERE NOTED...  950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES C TODAY.  SO... WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY... EXPECT THE BEST WARMING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONT TO BUILD STRONGLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL GRADS WILL BECOME WEAKLY OFFSHORE.  ALTHOUGH GRADS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH EASTERLY WINDS THRU PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT/SUN A.M... LOW LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM.  EXPECT LITTLE... IF ANY STRATUS TONIGHT... AND IF THERE IS ANY...I T WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PROBABLY L.A. COUNTY.  WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY... SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA... BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS ON SUNDAY.  850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  AT 950 MB... TREMENDOUS WARMING... 10 TO 12 DEGREES C... IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES.  SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS L.A./VTU COUNTIES... WITH SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S.

AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON... RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL THINK THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  TEMPS AT 850 AND 950 MB WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH... AND MAY START THE DAY HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY. MONDAY  SHOULD STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER... RETURN TO ONSHORE GRADS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE SOME COOLING IN COSTAL SECTIONS... AND POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT COOLING IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL.

WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND ONSHORE GRADS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING... POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS.  SHOULD BE GENERAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE VALLEYS. THEN... UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE RATHER STRONG.  EXPECT TYPICAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

LAX 000. BRUNO.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLAX).